SANGAM PRASAIN
KATHMANDU, AUG 21 -
Poor monsoon and a shortage of chemical fertilisers this season may result in a 10-15 percent drop in paddy and maize output, raising the risk of a food crisis and price hikes.
Based on preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture Development (MoAD), rice and corn production is expected to drop by around 1 million tonnes this season, against the output recorded in the corresponding period last year.
Economists said the reduced output would slow down the country’s economic growth by 0.5 percent to 0.7 percent in the next fiscal year. The government has targeted a growth rate of 5.5 percent in the fiscal 2012-13.
“The scenario shows that the country’s paddy and maize output could fall 10-15 percent year on year,” said Tek Prasad Luitel, senior agro-economist at the MoAD.
Luitel, however, said a possible food shortage would not reach an alarming level due to the current food reserves. The country produced 5.07 million tonnes of rice and 2.17 million tonnes of maize of the total of 9.45 million tonnes of food grain last fiscal (2011-12), resulting in a record food surplus of 886,307 tonnes.
Taking into account the current food reserve and the ministry estimates, the country is likely to face a food deficit of around 200,000 tonnes. “The drought represents another distress for consumers and the country’s economy, which counts on consumer spending for more than two-thirds of its activity,” said senior economist Bishwamber Pyakurel.
The drought’s impact has also been observed in India where rice is one of the staple foods. India, which is the second largest rice grower after China, banned export of non-basmati varieties for three years after the shock of the 2008 world food crisis.
“Inadequate production here and pressure in neighbouring countries means higher prices for everybody. Most consumers are unlikely to get food at fair prices,” Pyakurel said. According to him, unavailability of chemical fertilisers during the peak paddy planting season and dressing period of maize in addition to a weak monsoon has hit production.
Nepal has the lowest agriculture productivity in the South Asian region. Fertilisers contribute 40 percent to stimulating production. This monsoon, paddy transplantation could not be done on 10 percent of the target area of 1.52 million hectares, while two-thirds of the country suffered a drought-like situation.
According to the Meteorological Forecasting Division, the country received 163.7 mm of rainfall in June, which was 39 percent below average. In July, rainfall was recorded at 383.6 mm, which is 13 percent below average and only 7 percent above a drought situation. The country has remained almost dry so far.
Source: http://kantipuronline.com/2012/08/21/national/weak-monsoon-hits-summer-crops/359044.html
KATHMANDU, AUG 21 -
Poor monsoon and a shortage of chemical fertilisers this season may result in a 10-15 percent drop in paddy and maize output, raising the risk of a food crisis and price hikes.
Based on preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture Development (MoAD), rice and corn production is expected to drop by around 1 million tonnes this season, against the output recorded in the corresponding period last year.
Economists said the reduced output would slow down the country’s economic growth by 0.5 percent to 0.7 percent in the next fiscal year. The government has targeted a growth rate of 5.5 percent in the fiscal 2012-13.
“The scenario shows that the country’s paddy and maize output could fall 10-15 percent year on year,” said Tek Prasad Luitel, senior agro-economist at the MoAD.
Luitel, however, said a possible food shortage would not reach an alarming level due to the current food reserves. The country produced 5.07 million tonnes of rice and 2.17 million tonnes of maize of the total of 9.45 million tonnes of food grain last fiscal (2011-12), resulting in a record food surplus of 886,307 tonnes.
Taking into account the current food reserve and the ministry estimates, the country is likely to face a food deficit of around 200,000 tonnes. “The drought represents another distress for consumers and the country’s economy, which counts on consumer spending for more than two-thirds of its activity,” said senior economist Bishwamber Pyakurel.
The drought’s impact has also been observed in India where rice is one of the staple foods. India, which is the second largest rice grower after China, banned export of non-basmati varieties for three years after the shock of the 2008 world food crisis.
“Inadequate production here and pressure in neighbouring countries means higher prices for everybody. Most consumers are unlikely to get food at fair prices,” Pyakurel said. According to him, unavailability of chemical fertilisers during the peak paddy planting season and dressing period of maize in addition to a weak monsoon has hit production.
Nepal has the lowest agriculture productivity in the South Asian region. Fertilisers contribute 40 percent to stimulating production. This monsoon, paddy transplantation could not be done on 10 percent of the target area of 1.52 million hectares, while two-thirds of the country suffered a drought-like situation.
According to the Meteorological Forecasting Division, the country received 163.7 mm of rainfall in June, which was 39 percent below average. In July, rainfall was recorded at 383.6 mm, which is 13 percent below average and only 7 percent above a drought situation. The country has remained almost dry so far.
Source: http://kantipuronline.com/2012/08/21/national/weak-monsoon-hits-summer-crops/359044.html
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